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by an analyst who prefers to remain anonymous
Date Sent to Zipple: December 10, 2000


MILITARY ANALYSIS by an analyst who prefers to remain anonymous

Political pundits are mystified by Barak’s decision to resign and hold elections within 60 days. He seems to have very little to gain. He will either lose to just about any challenger - as polls strongly indicate, or he will win and be stuck with the same grid-locked Knesset.

There is one rather frightening scenario by which Barak’s action makes perfect Machiavellian sense.

Syria has been repeatedly warned that, if they do not rein in the Hizb’Allah ’s terror attacks on the Lebanese border, Israel will attack Syrian troops in Lebanon. This will then lead to further escalation, according the analysts, followed by an Israeli-Syrian war - with the certain participation of Iraq - as well as other Arab countries.

Israeli population centers would probably be hit with Iraqi, Syrian and perhaps even Iranian missiles. The Palestinians would inflict as many civilian casualties as possible, and attempt to wipe out a few settlements.

The IDF would need to be concentrated on the borders so the settlements would have to defend themselves. Direct casualties on the borders would mount. But, Israel would somehow overcome and retain most of her former borders.

Israel would then be sufficiently "softened up" with arms supplies used up. She would have to accept an internationally brokered/pressured agreement with Yassir Arafat and Syria’s Assad, giving them whatever they ask for.

Barak, agreement in hand and on the heels of a major military "salvation", would then sweep to victory in the up-coming elections within 60 days. His Nobel Peace Prize would follow shortly thereafter.

Farfetched? Not really. Look at what Henry Kissinger orchestrated before the 1973 Yom Kippur War. A limited Arab attack with a limited Israeli military defeat in order to bring a "softened" Israel to the negotiating table. We recall how a then General Sharon - against orders - executed a flanking maneuver surrounding the Egyptian Army in the Sinai Desert and was only prevented from destroying it by incredible international pressure.

The Barak scenario calls for a limited Arab incursion, increased attacks by the Palestinian Para-Military Forces, and a limited response from Israel to Iraq/Syrian missile attacks. Civilian casualties will be high; military casualties will be moderate - and Barak will regain power.


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