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Home > OP-ED > Barak Advanced the Arab Timetable to War

Title: Barak Advanced the Arab Timetable to War
by Emanuel A. Winston
Date: January 8, 2001

Barak (last in a long line of Labor Left appeasers) has very definitely advanced the Arab timetable for war against Israel. The Left, having made extraordinary concessions to the Arabs over the years, have built up the Arabs' expectations and conclusions that Israel has lost the will to fight. Barak confirmed this as he demonstrated in practice that, not only was he the Ultimate Dove but he was even willing to give up the bedrock of Jewish identity.

Scholars familiar with the Arab culture and Islam could easily tell you in advance that concessions of the magnitude offered by Barak would merely bait the Arabs into regional war. Giving up territory, defensive borders, water was one thing but, giving up G-d (as in dividing Jerusalem and even suggesting the abandoning of the Holy of Holies) confirmed that Israel was ripe for conquest. Everything the Arabs lost in six wars would be recovered plus their vaunted manhood and lost honor.

The Arab nations, since they lost the 1973 Yom Kippur War, have been spending their resources on re-arming for their next war against Israel.

United Nations inspections have uncovered the accumulations of Iraq's weapons and the advanced state of its creation of NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) catastrophic weapons of mass destruction. This has, of course, continued since the U.N. inspections ceased.

Syria has been developing the most advanced Chemical capability of any nation in the Mid East. Iran has been on a crash program in Nuclear weapons plus Biological and Chemical substances.

All three have purchased long-range missiles in addition to acquiring the capabilities to build their own. They have purchased materials and technology from China, North Korea and many of the European nations, including the dismantled Former Soviet Union's impoverished military. Russia, under Putin, has once again opened up arms sales, despite U.S. objections. Egypt has been fully re-armed with the best American equipment U.S. financial aid could purchase. All of these nations could have used the fortunes they spent for bringing their own people into the 20th century but, instead were consumed by the deadly toys of war - with conquering Israel as the excuse for accumulating these vast armories.

Later they may war with each other.

Once again, there are signals coming from these nations that they are preparing for conflict. Ehud Barak has even alerted his generals to get ready. Saddam has moved several units of brigade strength into a position where they could use Jordan as an armor entry point. Worse yet, they (Iraq, Syria, Iran) are collectively operating under new mutual defense pacts and possibly believe they can obliterate Israel's retaliatory capability by a saturation launch of missiles.

In looking for what they may consider a best date and circumstance for such an attack, they might consider the window of opportunity is within the next 30 days. They would be facing the confirmed Dove, Ehud Barak and not Arik Sharon. They would expect Barak to hesitate and dither rather than launch a retaliatory strike upon seeing their incoming missiles. They would correctly expect Barak to consult with the U.S. to seek permission before responding.

Of course, given that the incoming warheads could contain NBC (Nuclear, Biological and/or Chemical) materials, a counter-strike by Israel could possibly be crushed before it began. Would Ehud Barak dare to prepare Israel 's non-conventional weapons in advance, ready to fly - perhaps pre-emptively - based on intelligence of a confirmed plan to evaporate the entire nation?

I tend to believe that the Arabs are counting on Barak's policy of restraint and fear of world opinion. Even if they are wrong, they still have every reason to think that Ehud Barak is too much of a Dove to actually move to a position of "Launch On Sight of Incoming". I believe they would be equally sure that Arik Sharon would NOT hesitate for a moment. Therefore, the next 30 days are can be considered critical.

How might it all start? Given Arafat's refusal to take even the absurdly extreme concessions Barak has offered him, there is little doubt he wants a greater war. His responsibilities would be to ramp up the violence all over Israel so there is chaos in the streets. This would provoke a much stronger IDF (Israel Defense Forces) response.

One or all of the participating Arab nations would proclaim they must save the Palestinian people from being slaughtered and, of course, save Al Aksa and the Dome of the Rock. This would be a sufficient reason to offer the world the excuse and opportunity to launch a full scale war, using saturation missile attacks, followed by armor and troops pouring through Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.

For the first time during an incoming assault of Arab armies, Israel would also have to contend with wide-spread violence inside the country from Israeli Arabs and Palestinian Arabs in the Palestinian Authority areas of control who would be sabotaging efforts to mobilize reserve forces. Internal attacks to draw troops away from the borders would, of course, be the enemies' strategy.

Arafat's well-armed Palestinian Armed Forces now numbering upwards of 60,000. (Oslo permits 20,000 lightly armed Police) are trained for sniping, laying mines and road side explosives. Even now, Arafat's Forces have un-crated their (illegal) heavy machine guns to use where they can.

Unfortunately the settlers, many of whom are reserve soldiers, have had their defense capability lowered over the years by being under-supplied with insufficient weapons and ammunition. They were supposed to be ejected by the Labor Party's manipulations. Having them armed effectively didn't fit their plan. In the past they were a strong front line and could be again if the Army releases sufficient weapons and other defensive equipment to them.

If the Arabs were winning, they would expect Arabists in Washington to maneuver to stop re-supply of Israel or to interfere in any way possible. Now (January 8) after 3 months of massive Arab violence, the IDF is running low on non-lethal ammunition such as tear gas, rubber-coated bullets and other non lethal equipment. France refuses to supply Israel with these items. Israel has urgently requested the U.S. to send them quickly.

This decision to come to Israel's aid and prevent her annihilation would have to go right to the top. In a few weeks there will be a new, untrained President George Bush, Jr., with Colin Powell and Dick Cheney as his experienced advisors. What exactly is their mindset regarding Israel's right of self-defense and America's 'de facto' obligation to come to her aid if Israel is greatly threatened? If they did not wish to assist Israel, would they try to delay re-supply as Nixon/Kissinger did in 1973, followed by excuses to Congress and the American people?

Perhaps this would be a good time to question President-Elect Bush now. And Israel should confer with the new Congress as to their attitude on immediate assistance if there is an attack on Israel.

Israel has been attacked six times by the Arab nations, with their stated intent to eliminate the Jewish nation. Many in Washington's Arabist community would like to see this happen . That attitude is shared by others in the E.U. (European Union), particularly France, who have shown their bias directly and through the U.N. (United Nations). There is no reason to believe that the Arab nations driven by Islamic fervor have changed their collective mindset.

A major regional war by the Arab armies against Israel is not a matter of IF but WHEN. The next 30 days happen to be one window of opportunity. No doubt, there will be others.

Israel has no obligation to answer to the nations who never cared, nor should Israel risk her existence to seek their approval which never comes!

If, per chance, you are going to Washington to brief the new Congress or are moved to call, write, fax, Email - consider asking them: "Are you prepared to assist Israel in a self-defensive war?" Also ask them: "Are you prepared to go into emergency session if it appears the new Bush Administration is dragging its feet before assisting Israel?"

If there is going to be a war, things are going to happen very quickly. Let us not wait to figure out what to do, when/if the balloon of war goes up! Do it now!

By the way, remember when Hafez al Assad of Syria was alive, Barak tried to give away the Golan Heights - all the way down to the shores of the Kinneret. At that time, Barak tried to scare everyone by claiming the Syrians could easily roll over our IDF troops and civilians, causing enormous casualties. It appeared that something was in the works with Assad to start a dash across the 9 mile wide Golan plateau, resulting in Barak calling a retreat and, thereby, transferring the Golan to Syria without a political loss. That assumed a quick step-in by U.S./U.N. troops to freeze the Syrian victory in place - something like Barak's precipitous and ignominious retreat from Lebanon - although the U.N. did not step in quickly as anticipated by Barak.

Similarly, would a war of convenience that drove the settlers out of their homes and the territories work the same way?

Clearly, the U.N. is ready to send forces in and Clinton has already spoken about these forces monitoring the border along the Jordan Valley and/or on the Golan Heights. Somehow I do not trust Barak - Clinton - Arafat - the Arab countries - the Arabists in Washington or the unknown new Bush administration, particularly with him summoning his father's old crew back into the saddle - especially Jim Baker.

Let's keep an educated eye open!


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