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Title: Barak Advanced the Arab Timetable to War
by Emanuel A. Winston
Date: January 8, 2001
Barak (last in a long line of Labor Left appeasers) has very definitely
advanced the Arab timetable for war against Israel. The Left, having made
extraordinary concessions to the Arabs over the years, have built up the
Arabs' expectations and conclusions that Israel has lost the will to fight.
Barak confirmed this as he demonstrated in practice that, not only was he
the Ultimate Dove but he was even willing to give up the bedrock of Jewish
Scholars familiar with the Arab culture and Islam could easily tell you in
advance that concessions of the magnitude offered by Barak would merely bait
the Arabs into regional war. Giving up territory, defensive borders, water
was one thing but, giving up G-d (as in dividing Jerusalem and even
suggesting the abandoning of the Holy of Holies) confirmed that Israel was
ripe for conquest. Everything the Arabs lost in six wars would be recovered
plus their vaunted manhood and lost honor.
The Arab nations, since they lost the 1973 Yom Kippur War, have been
spending their resources on re-arming for their next war against Israel.
United Nations inspections have uncovered the accumulations of Iraq's
weapons and the advanced state of its creation of NBC (Nuclear, Biological
and Chemical) catastrophic weapons of mass destruction. This has, of course,
continued since the U.N. inspections ceased.
Syria has been developing the most advanced Chemical capability of any
nation in the Mid East. Iran has been on a crash program in Nuclear weapons
plus Biological and Chemical substances.
All three have purchased long-range missiles in addition to acquiring the
capabilities to build their own. They have purchased materials and
technology from China, North Korea and many of the European nations,
including the dismantled Former Soviet Union's impoverished military.
Russia, under Putin, has once again opened up arms sales, despite U.S.
objections. Egypt has been fully re-armed with the best American equipment
U.S. financial aid could purchase. All of these nations could have used the
fortunes they spent for bringing their own people into the 20th century but,
instead were consumed by the deadly toys of war - with conquering Israel as
the excuse for accumulating these vast armories.
Later they may war with each other.
Once again, there are signals coming from these nations that they are
preparing for conflict. Ehud Barak has even alerted his generals to get
ready. Saddam has moved several units of brigade strength into a position
where they could use Jordan as an armor entry point. Worse yet, they (Iraq,
Syria, Iran) are collectively operating under new mutual defense pacts and
possibly believe they can obliterate Israel's retaliatory capability by a
saturation launch of missiles.
In looking for what they may consider a best date and circumstance for such
an attack, they might consider the window of opportunity is within the next
30 days. They would be facing the confirmed Dove, Ehud Barak and not Arik
Sharon. They would expect Barak to hesitate and dither rather than launch a
retaliatory strike upon seeing their incoming missiles. They would correctly
expect Barak to consult with the U.S. to seek permission before responding.
Of course, given that the incoming warheads could contain NBC (Nuclear,
Biological and/or Chemical) materials, a counter-strike by Israel could
possibly be crushed before it began. Would Ehud Barak dare to prepare Israel
's non-conventional weapons in advance, ready to fly - perhaps
pre-emptively - based on intelligence of a confirmed plan to evaporate the
I tend to believe that the Arabs are counting on Barak's policy of restraint
and fear of world opinion. Even if they are wrong, they still have every
reason to think that Ehud Barak is too much of a Dove to actually move to a
position of "Launch On Sight of Incoming". I believe they would be equally
sure that Arik Sharon would NOT hesitate for a moment. Therefore, the next
30 days are can be considered critical.
How might it all start? Given Arafat's refusal to take even the absurdly
extreme concessions Barak has offered him, there is little doubt he wants a
greater war. His responsibilities would be to ramp up the violence all over
Israel so there is chaos in the streets. This would provoke a much stronger
IDF (Israel Defense Forces) response.
One or all of the participating Arab nations would proclaim they must save
the Palestinian people from being slaughtered and, of course, save Al Aksa
and the Dome of the Rock. This would be a sufficient reason to offer the
world the excuse and opportunity to launch a full scale war, using
saturation missile attacks, followed by armor and troops pouring through
Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.
For the first time during an incoming assault of Arab armies, Israel would
also have to contend with wide-spread violence inside the country from
Israeli Arabs and Palestinian Arabs in the Palestinian Authority areas of
control who would be sabotaging efforts to mobilize reserve forces. Internal
attacks to draw troops away from the borders would, of course, be the
Arafat's well-armed Palestinian Armed Forces now numbering upwards of
60,000. (Oslo permits 20,000 lightly armed Police) are trained for sniping,
laying mines and road side explosives. Even now, Arafat's Forces have
un-crated their (illegal) heavy machine guns to use where they can.
Unfortunately the settlers, many of whom are reserve soldiers, have had
their defense capability lowered over the years by being under-supplied with
insufficient weapons and ammunition. They were supposed to be ejected by the
Labor Party's manipulations. Having them armed effectively didn't fit their
plan. In the past they were a strong front line and could be again if the
Army releases sufficient weapons and other defensive equipment to them.
If the Arabs were winning, they would expect Arabists in Washington to
maneuver to stop re-supply of Israel or to interfere in any way possible.
Now (January 8) after 3½ months of massive Arab violence, the IDF is running
low on non-lethal ammunition such as tear gas, rubber-coated bullets and
other non lethal equipment. France refuses to supply Israel with these
items. Israel has urgently requested the U.S. to send them quickly.
This decision to come to Israel's aid and prevent her annihilation would
have to go right to the top. In a few weeks there will be a new, untrained
President George Bush, Jr., with Colin Powell and Dick Cheney as his
experienced advisors. What exactly is their mindset regarding Israel's right
of self-defense and America's 'de facto' obligation to come to her aid if
Israel is greatly threatened? If they did not wish to assist Israel, would
they try to delay re-supply as Nixon/Kissinger did in 1973, followed by
excuses to Congress and the American people?
Perhaps this would be a good time to question President-Elect Bush now. And
Israel should confer with the new Congress as to their attitude on immediate
assistance if there is an attack on Israel.
Israel has been attacked six times by the Arab nations, with their stated
intent to eliminate the Jewish nation. Many in Washington's Arabist
community would like to see this happen . That attitude is shared by others
in the E.U. (European Union), particularly France, who have shown their bias
directly and through the U.N. (United Nations). There is no reason to
believe that the Arab nations driven by Islamic fervor have changed their
A major regional war by the Arab armies against Israel is not a matter of IF
but WHEN. The next 30 days happen to be one window of opportunity. No doubt,
there will be others.
Israel has no obligation to answer to the nations who never cared, nor
should Israel risk her existence to seek their approval which never comes!
If, per chance, you are going to Washington to brief the new Congress or are
moved to call, write, fax, Email - consider asking them: "Are you prepared
to assist Israel in a self-defensive war?" Also ask them: "Are you prepared
to go into emergency session if it appears the new Bush Administration is
dragging its feet before assisting Israel?"
If there is going to be a war, things are going to happen very quickly. Let
us not wait to figure out what to do, when/if the balloon of war goes up! Do
By the way, remember when Hafez al Assad of Syria was alive, Barak tried to
give away the Golan Heights - all the way down to the shores of the
Kinneret. At that time, Barak tried to scare everyone by claiming the
Syrians could easily roll over our IDF troops and civilians, causing
enormous casualties. It appeared that something was in the works with Assad
to start a dash across the 9 mile wide Golan plateau, resulting in Barak
calling a retreat and, thereby, transferring the Golan to Syria without a
political loss. That assumed a quick step-in by U.S./U.N. troops to freeze
the Syrian victory in place - something like Barak's precipitous and
ignominious retreat from Lebanon - although the U.N. did not step in quickly
as anticipated by Barak.
Similarly, would a war of convenience that drove the settlers out of their
homes and the territories work the same way?
Clearly, the U.N. is ready to send forces in and Clinton has already spoken
about these forces monitoring the border along the Jordan Valley and/or on
the Golan Heights. Somehow I do not trust Barak - Clinton - Arafat - the
Arab countries - the Arabists in Washington or the unknown new Bush
administration, particularly with him summoning his father's old crew back
into the saddle - especially Jim Baker.
Let's keep an educated eye open!
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